Ari Glass Knicks Blog

​     The knicks concluded the regular season at 47-34.  I was more bullish on them coming into the season than almost anyone and I didn’t predict 47 (predicted 43 versus consensus 37).  The reasons for my optimism mostly played out along with some others.  In the season preview, I pointed out that I was excited about the youth and potential of Quickley, Grimes, and Toppin.  On the first two, I arguably under predicted how much they would ascend (Quickley for at least half of the season and Grimes for the last quarter).  I had expected more out of Toppin. What is still unclear is how much of Toppin’s limited production was due to lack of opportunity (some warranted due to the throwback Randle year).  When he got to start for an injured Randle to close out the season he, once again, put up terrific numbers.  I hope he gets more than his regular season typical 12 minutes a game allotment.  The main reason to be excited for this team is the young guys.  Quickley and Grimes (assuming they resign them) will be key pieces of playoff teams for many years to come.  McBride still pays great defense and Sims can log quality minutes as a backup center.

Randle had a much better year than expected.  He looked close to 2020/21 form.  Having said that, I am still just not a fan of his game.  He is a ball stopper.  He demands the ball every time down and is just selfish player.  They are much more fun to watch when he is not in.  But, as his 57 point game showed, he can get hot and play at truly elite levels.

I knew Brunson would be a significant improvement from last years point guard play but that was a very low bar.  I thought he’d be good for 18-20 a game.  I didn’t see the 24 ppg and such good 3 point shots coming.  His array of offensive moves is impressive.  He can get his shot whenever he wants.  He is also better for late game isolations that Randle is.  His defense is still very poor due to lack of quickness and size.  This typically leads to stitches that end 2 passes later with an open 3-pointer.

Mitchell Robinson had an up and down season but was mostly a positive on the defensive side.  He doesn’t have any offensive game, but he is the best offensive rebounder in the NBA - and those second chances add tons of value.  He finished the season strong.  Hartenstein took the rest of the center minutes.  It took him half a season to adapt to a new team, but when he did, he added tons of value with his defense , rebounding, and his unusually good passing for a big man.
Hart was a good mid-season pick up as he brings many intangibles to the team.  He is a glue guy and does all the little things.  His offensive game is limited but his coast-to-coast drive offs of rebounds are always fun to watch.

Barrett had a disappointing season.  He has great stretches where he gets to the basket at will but it’s a shooters league and his shooting has regressed.  At 22 he can still improve but I suspect that if they had not given him the large contract at the end of last year, he wouldn’t get it today.

The knicks finished in the 5 seed and play the Cavs in the playoffs.  The irony is their best player is Donavan Mitchell who seemed almost certain to be a Knick before the season began.  Mitchell was great, but I have no regrets about not trading for him. It would have cost us Grimes, Quickley, and many number 1s. I like our team.  The Knicks have a very good shot to beat a good Cavs team (and win the regular season series).  The Knicks are likely not ready to compete with Bucks of the league (barring a very hot Randle) but aren’t too far away.  I’m not sure where the superstar player they need will come from but it seems that every year there is a disgruntled superstar on the market.  I will leave that for the off-season blog-one I hope we still have a while to write.
​

The knicks are playing approximately how we thought they would with most players playing as we thought they would.  As such they are around 500.  Julius Randle is still an empty box score stuffer.  He is selfish with the ball and lazy on defense.
Quickley and Grimes continue to show promise and I’d love to see them get more playing time and the same goes for Sims.  Toppin started that way but has massively cooled off.  He still brings energy but the shot needs to come back to have him be a real plus.
I had high hopes for Hartenstein but after seeing him play, he either isn’t what I hoped or is not being properly utilized.  Rose is ok but not what he was 2 years ago pre injury. Him on floor means less time for Quickley.
I agree with the Fournier benching.   RJ Barrett has been a major disappointment.  It’s not just the shooting which has horribly regressed, but on defense, he was once very good, and he is now very bad.  Teams design offenses to isolate him on their players.
Brunson is interesting.  He was always going to be an improvement given how historically bad Walker was.  His offense has been as good as promised if not better.  He is over 20 points per game and his leadership skills are apparent.  His defense though is even worse than anticipated and it causes the breakdown of the whole defensive scheme.  People need to pick up his man and two passes later an open 3 is available to the other team.  Lastly, Cam Reddish has been a huge upside surprise.  He is playing the defense I knew he was capable of with his athleticism and long limbs.  He is really shocking on the offensive side where he wants from half a season of ineptitude to being a decent shooter, a good driver, and a surprisingly ok decision maker.  I didn’t see it coming.  However, his best value may be as trade bait given that his contract ends this year.
Robinson had a decent early run, then was bad, and even worse when he originally returned from injury. Then against Memphis showed glimpses of what I once thought he could be- a promise that is very alluring.  Its unclear which one of those guys will regularly show up.
For those who love defense and high energy…

​My dream line up would be, Quickly at point, with Grimes, Reddish, Toppin and either Sims or Robinson.  That’s a lineup I’d pay to watch.

     ​After a long off season that included a long dalliance with the Jazz to acquire Donavan Mitchell, the Knicks smartly walked away as the asking price escalated to an unreasonable place.  Mitchell would not have put them over the top to make them a top 4 team and would’ve depleted most of the avenues for potential future improvements.  It would’ve been nice to get him at a reasonable price, but 5 number 1's and big pieces of our young core is too much.  That’s the price for a top 5-7 player in the league.  Mitchell is good but closer to a top 25 and would not have been worth it. 
    However, this does not meant the Knicks will not be an improved team.  While consensus has the Knicks as a 38-win team, I see them actually enjoying a winning record at 43-39 and snagging the 7th or 8 seed.  The East is strong, and this may require a downside surprise by a team above them, but that always seems to happen to a couple of teams. 
   My reasons for optimism include:
1-The advance metrics last year on the Knicks did in fact have them the equivalent of a .500 team.
2- Jalen Brunson- He is not a good defensive player but is a very good offensive player.  Perhaps he isn’t a great one , but he is also a very competent play maker and ball handler, and seems to make others around him better.  Even if you assume him to be NBA started average, it is such a huge improvement from the Burks led offense from a year ago.  Burks is a decent rotation wing.  He was terribly miscast as a point guard when Walker proved to be useless, and Rose was injured.  On that point, the Kemba Walker we saw last year ( a shame we missed him when he was a top tier NBA player), was one of the worst defensive players I had ever seen.  He was so inept that it was like playing 5 on 4 when he was out there.  Jalen playing 34 minutes a night combined with a healthy (and now in better shape ) rose playing the other 14 alone will drastically improve this team
3- Improvement from the young players. 
This is a very young team with most players very much on the ascent of their careers.
It's amazing to realize that RJ Barret is only 22 years old.  He came out of college so young that its under appreciated how much he is still on the upward slope of his career.  After an unhealthy first half of the year last year , in the second half he averaged about 23 PPG.  I expect him to do that for the season this year, and at a more efficient clip than last year. He continues to work on and improve his 3 Point shot (that looked very good in preseason).  Also with his enormous strength, he seems to be able to get into the paint at will and is improving his finishing at the rim.  He could make his first all star game this year.  We will be very happy over the coming years that he wasn’t traded away in the Donavan Mitchell trade. Mitchell Robinson went from a quick athletic center to a strong but bulky one all due to his tremendous workouts while his leg was injured. This preseason, he seems to have the right combination of mobility and strength.  While his offensive game is still limited, he can be an elite defender and his offense should benefit more than anyone’s by the addition of Brunson.  He needed good PG play more than anyone.
4. Recent draft picks quickly (the stat heads love his advanced metrics more than I do), Obi Toppin, who closed the year very strong, and Quentin Grimes (Summer league star) should all continue to improve.  The challenge will be for Thibodeau to give them the playing time to do their thing.  They were exceptional at the end of the year – especially Obi and it’s rumored that this was an awakening for the Coach.  Obi adds value, even when his shot is not working, but when it does it is a game changer.  Grimes is an excellent defensive player and good shooter who seemed to add a drive to his game this year.  By the end of the year, he should replace Fournier in the starting lineup.  Given Brunson’s defensive inadequacies, it would be good to have a better defensive presence next to him in the backcourt.
5. Lastly, I do like the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein to the team.  It could take a little while for him to learn how to fit in but the fact that he brings a completely different offensive game at the Center position will help on certain nights against certain matchups.  He is an excellent passer and had enough shooting range to keep defenses honest and away from the middle.  For certain opposing centers that will be very helpful.
    A year ago, it would have been unthinkable to have a Knicks preview and get to Julius Randle this late, but he went from an ALL-NBA player to one of the least efficient players in the league in one year.  A return to 2020 is not realistic but something resembling the player he was before coming to the knicks seems possible.  He spent the summer watching Euro league ball to learn how to play and be team ball better.  It seems someone gave him a message that his play needs to materially change.  I’m not wildly hopeful and the bar is very low.  Presumably Thibodeau figured out from watching Obi that he has another option.

A few random parting thoughts:
Cam Reddish was a bad acquisition. He is amazingly athletic yet still possess such a poor Basketball IQ and shooting skills that he won’t see much playing time unless there are injuries.  
Miles McBride is an excellent defensive player. I’m not sure his offensive skills will be enough to get him regular rotation time- barring injury or a night of resting Rose.
I don’t mind that Leon Rose doesn’t talk to the media.  It's smart.  Talking to the media only allows others to know how you think. Why would he want 29 other team to know this?  Ever GM should be smart enough to do this.  Lastly, he is good at drafting.  If you think about where he got Quickly and Grimes- on both cases he targeted them- realized others didn’t have them as highly ranked- and traded down to get a player who would be much higher in a re-draft.  His signings last year of Walker and Fournier were not good but decent risk/rewards given the information available at the time and price.
With an ascending team and a treasure of upcoming draft picks, there are reasons to be optimistic about the future of this team.    Inevitably, a disgruntled star will want to force his way out of another situation and the Knicks will have asset to compete for them.  I’m excited to see the season get started.

his is not how to tank. The Knicks can’t even get tanking right. After starting out the season by benching Enes Kanter because he was too good, Fizdale forgot to take Robinson out of the line up the last couple of games when he was dominating. Just as he doesn’t recognize that a 20-foot jumper with 20 seconds on the shot clock is a bad expected value, he doesn’t seem to realize that playing dominant defensive players could be hazardous to efforts to lose.

In all seriousness, the Knicks have won 3 out of 4 which does start to hurt their chances of landing Zion, even in a flatter lottery.  However, the big win for them will be getting two top tier free agents to fill the slots created by the massive salary dump.  These guys will have to believe a core team is intact to compete.  Seeing Robinson start to come into his own is exciting.  He leads the league in blocks per 36 minutes by a wide margin.  He alters many other shots, and he is starting to learn how to stay out of foul trouble.  He can’t shoot a lick, but still is contributing tremendously offensively on pick and rolls and on the offensive glass.  Knox continues to struggle but we are constantly reminded that he is the second youngest player in the league. 

I can’t believe how improved Mudiay is.  Last year he was unwatchable and unplayable. When he started off ok this year, I assumed it was just a little deviation from a mean he would return to.  He is actually an improved player.  How much can be attributed to weight loss and physical improvements versus confidence or just maturity, he is a legit NBA player.  Unfortunately, he is not signed for next year.  Also, if they are lucky enough to land Durant the obvious complement to that would be Kyrie.  However, with Smith Jr already there, Mudiay makes no sense if you are considering Kyrie. A true dream scenario would be Leonard and Durant as they can be interchangeable between the 3 and 4 and the Knicks don’t have much other quality at the Forward position at all.  If they could pull that off I'd leave Kyrie behind and settle on Mudiay.

If you are going to fill the roster with cheap contracts of reasonable quality, Dotson, Trier and Kadeem Allen are decent role players. Its silly to get excited by one game by Henry Ellenson. Nobody will remember his name a year from now. Fizdale falls in and out of love very easily, as witnessed at various points this year with Kornet, Hezonja, Vonleh, etc. He then moves on.

It is at least great to dream again.  The odds are very small but a win in the lottery and a win in free agency, will mean these complementary pieces can help make a real run in the weak Eastern Conference. I’d rather be young and bad than old and bad. At least we have accomplished that.
Lastly, they play the Cavs this weekend. Very definition of a must lose game.
 
-Ari Glass
 

The season is just underway but it’s all about next year. The Knicks are not going anywhere this year with an injured Porzingis. They drafted well and have some good young players which combines to make this a good development year. Additionally, with a high draft pick and some salary cap space opening up this year should be about setting up for next year. At one point it seemed Kyrie Irving was a possibility.  It seems less likely now. Others are of the belief that Durant has a chance of coming here but that seems like unrealistic NY fans talking.

They took Knox in the first round and he flashed potential before getting hurt. He will need to increase his efficiency, but he is only 19 and has a bright future potentially ahead.  I’m as excited about their other rookies. Mitchell Robinson was a steal in the second round.  He is an athletic freak of a 7 footer who will fill out and learn how to play NBA basketball.  He is a good shot blocker and alters drives to the basket. He currently has a very unpolished offensive game but with potential and fouls too often.  For a guy with no college experience he is far along. Lastly, rookie free agent Alonzo Trier played very well in the preseason and got off to a good start. He reminds me a bit of a young John Starks. I think he will be a rotation guy for years to come. Their players that will be part of a rotation for years to come out of one draft class is excellent.

Additionally, last year’s young rookie, Frank Ntilikina has taken a modest step forward. Already a very good defensive player he is looking for his shot more and has improved his 3-point accuracy.  He still lacks a great handle or high-end athleticism to be a great point guard, but he too is still very young and will continue to grow.  Dotson, another second-year player has also shown himself to be a sold 3 and D guy who continues to get better. Unfortunately, at age 24 already he may have less upside than some of the others. Either way it’s an intriguing young core.

They already used the stretch provision on Joakim Noah, ending the worst signing in franchise history.  Isiah Thomas thought he had permanently secured the top spot for that with his Eddy Curry trade but at $72m for nothing Phil Jackson stole the tittle from Isaiah.

Other goals for this year will be to develop Hardaway as a legit top scoring option. With Porzingis out he has taken on the role. He has to be efficient for it to be worthwhile when Porzingis returns. In addition to developing the younger guys they need to showcase the older guys so that they have value in a trade later in the season. Courtney lee is a solid 3 and D player (and currently injured to start the season), but since he is still on the payroll next year and at a crowded position it’s important that the Knicks find a taker for his contract later this year. Opening cap space to pursue free agents is an important component of what needs to be done.  With respect to others that are on one year deals (Kanter, Hezonja, Vonleh and Burke) the hope is that others see enough in them to offer something for them later in the year, but if not at least they don’t carry salary cap implications for next year.

Kanter has actually grown on me but unless he is willing to take a significant discount from his current contract or they can’t sign anyone else I can’t see him being back next year. I like what I see out of Fizdale so far. He seems to be a coach that players like playing for. He has them playing with good effort, but I’m still concerned about the number of 22-foot 2 point shots they take.  It’s a shot that statistically should not be taken unless there are less than 5 seconds left on the 24 second clock. 

In the end, as currently constituted (including an assumption of a Porzingis year end return) I think this is a 35-win team, but I hope they dismantle it enough to drop to 30 wins or less and position themselves as well as possible for the draft.
 
 -Ari Glass

The NBA draft is tonight and the Knicks pick 9th.  Past the first 4 picks (Ayton, Bagley, Doncic and Jackson). There is little certainty in how things play out. Mohamed Bamba, Wendell Carter, Michael Porter, Trae Young, Kevin Knox, Mikal Bridges and Collin Sexton likely round out the next 7.  At least 3 of these will be available to the Knicks. There is little consensus as to the order of these 7 and who will go where.  Amongst the names tied to the Knicks are Knox (young at 18 with loads of athleticism and potential. Young (the next Steph Curry who actually became the first to lead the NCAA is scoring and assists but is too small to play defense in the NBA) and Bridges (a classic 3 and D).
 
There has been speculation of the Knicks trading up to get Bamba at 4 with the Grizzlies looking to move down. They should not do this. For one it will involve taking a bad Chandler Parsons contract and/or giving up additional assets.  For another, for the Knicks to get the most out of Porzingis, they will need to play him at the 5. That is where the greatest mismatches can be exposed and in today’s NBA he can play the 5, but his shooting spreads the floor tremendously and most 5's can’t get out on him at the 3-point line.  His edge against power forwards is simply not as great.  Bamba would force Porzingis to stay at the 4. It's OK for 15 minutes a game, but greatness is destined for him at the 5, not the 4.
 
One name that has been talked about going high and low is Michael Porter.  Porter would’ve been a top 3 pick a year ago.  He came in, played 3 games, got hurt and hurt his draft stock. As it was climbing he cancelled workouts as a result of a “sore hip”.  This has served (possibly intentionally) to scare off some teams. There is speculation that he could sit out a year or part of it to get healthy. If available at 9 the Knicks should take him. 
 
The Knicks best player, Porzingis, is hurt and going to miss part of the year. That is one of a few reasons that 2018-19 will not be a good year anyway. Getting lesser talent that can play this year and potentially help take a 33 win to 378 wins makes no sense. 
 
Write off the year, get a great pick, clear up more cap space to sign someone like a Kyrie Irving or Kawai Leonard (who will both be free agents and have expressed an affinity for New York).
 
This could make for a very competitive 2019 team. Porter has the highest ceiling. For the Knicks to be competitive any time in the future they need to take a little injury risk and hope for the payoff. I’m hoping Porter slips to them and they are not short sighted enough to pass.

-Ari Glass

The Melo era (or is it error) is over. I thought they gave up too much to get him from a team that was fun to watch and was winning. The thesis that if you get the best player in a trade that it was a good trade is not always accurate.
 
I’m not one of those guys that thought he was a cancer and that he never played defense or passed.  I thought he was underrated on all the non-scoring aspects of his game. Regardless, his prime clearly passed a couple of years back and since the Knicks are at least a few years away there was no point in keeping him around while they build towards 2019 or 2020.  Where they can be faulted was in not getting enough in return.  Kanter and McDermott are two guys who don’t play defense.  Kanter in particular is at a position that the Knicks already have more than covered.
 
The only reason I feel they could have done better is the timing of the trade.  It is clear they blinked. By trading him a day before reporting day it was clear they were uncomfortable having him report. He was also uncomfortable being there and would have likely expanded the list of teams he would waive his no trade clause to if he was forced to play with a team he didn’t want to play with the Knicks. Phil Jacksons method of dealing with Melo was horrible, but his inclination that the time for him to move on was here, was correct.
 
Porzingis looked great in the international play this summer.  He looks improved and could be expected to play at an all-star level.  The rest of the team has some decent complimentary parts but I can’t see this team making the playoffs this year. When Melo returns to the Garden I hope to be there and will give him the ovation he deserves.  Sometimes it just doesn’t work out.


-Ari Glass

For the past 15 or so years I have participated in a Knicks season ticket plan.  I’m finally done. I’m going on hiatus.  They are one of the worst organizations in all of sports.
 
Regarding some recent news, while I know that Hardaway is not the player that left town two years ago, he is in no way a $71m player. There is a salary cap, so it’s not like you can just over pay for guys.  It doesn’t work that way. You need to stick to a budget and you need to buy talent for less than their intrinsic value.
 
Even more perplexing was the contract they gave to Ron Baker. Yes, he is a heady player, but his shooting percentage was horrible and it is a myth that he is good defensively.  He is smart and goes to the right spot, but every fast guard in the league blows by him causing the whole defense to break down.  There is no way there would have been competing for him at that number.  If you need further proof that they should even get this, the Knicks are in the market for a mature point guard to mentor Ntilikina.  If Ntilikina is the point guard of the future requiring them to get someone else to help out now, what is Baker?
 
And now they are hiring a GM from the Kings.  From the Kings.  I’d rather hire the ball boy from the Spurs than anyone from the Kings.  He was only there briefly but did nothing prior to that.  And while in Sacramento, they did a horrible deal in trading away Cousins for less than street value.
 
I do agree with the idea of trying to get young and build for future.  I agree they should move on from Melo if they get decent value simply because there is no chance he will still be around when the Knicks get good.  If however people really think Porzingis is ready to step up and be the main guy, I’m not so sure.  He could grow into it but as of last year he was still not really capable of creating his own shot.  His length can change the game defensively and his shooting ability should help stretch the floor, but only if someone else is passing him the ball.
 
The Knicks are years from competing and should build towards 2019 and build towards getting good draft picks.  That thought is accurate.  How they are going about getting there is just off.
 
On a side note and end to this Phil Jackson era.  It was a disaster but everyone was praising Dolan for the hire at the time. It turns out that whatever coaching skills Jackson had didn’t translate to the front office.  He made me pine for the days of Isaiah Thomas.

​-Ari Glass
 

In what was not much of a surprise the Knicks took 18 year old Frenchman Frank Ntilikina in the NBA draft.  He is certainly not as proven and won’t be the immediate contributor that Kentucky guard Malik Monk would have been.  He only averaged 5.4 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.5 assist in the French league this past year. However it should be noted he is an 18 year old playing against grown men. It was clear how much Porzingis and Hernangomez were able to more than translate their European stats into US stats moving up a year or two in age. 
 
He should be going into his freshman year at college. This is like drafting a high school senior.  While it is unreasonable to expect him to contribute meaningfully in the coming season, the Knicks were not going anywhere anyway this year. They still own their 2018 draft pick and another good lottery pick should help the rebuilding process.
 
In the meantime, as an 18 year old, he has the largest span of downside to upside possibility of all the draft picks available. He may not turn into much more than a serviceable NBA player, but a future NBA all-star would be where he is as an 18 year old.  The potential for him turning into a great player is there. The ceiling is high. Since the Knicks are so far away from being a competitive team it makes sense to take a high volatility bet like this at this point in the process.
 
Regarding the rebuilding process, Phil Jackson is absolutely correct in wanting to have Melo move on and start the rebuilding process. Melo will clearly be gone by the time the Knicks become competitive again, so why have him around hindering growth of young players and causing the Knicks to win more games in a meaningless season. It only hurts their draft position. 
 
He is however completely wrong in the way he has gone about it. He has managed to not only alienate the player, but his teammates, and in particular Kristaps Porzingis, the face and future of the franchise.  I don’t condone Porzingis’ behavior.  It’s a clear power play where he is trying to get Jackson fired out of loyalty to his friend Carmelo.  I appreciate loyalty, but it’s not the way to do it.
 
I also agree with him that Jackson should be gone. He has shown himself to not be a particularly good evaluator of talent, while he is clueless when it comes to the business side of the role -salary cap management, etc. He is also an unwilling adapter of the statistical revolution that has reshaped the NBA. The math works. Just ask the Spurs and Rockets. I’d suggest the Warriors too, but they may just be so talented as to defy having to worry about statistical probabilities. 
 
The Knicks will have many years of being no competitive barring an unlikely and lucky situation.  The Celtics have loaded up on the bad Nets deal from years ago and will continue to feast on that. The Philadelphia 76er “process” should bear fruits this year. I think that if Philly is healthy they could compete for the eastern conference -a real worst to first type of situation. They are loaded and will be good for a long time.
 
The Knicks should figure out a way to start their own process around Porzingis, Hernangomez and Ntilikina, and with a little lottery luck be able to add some pieces around that.  It won’t be soon.
 

-Ari Glass

The Knicks are 5-7.  For a team that I assume will play .500 ball, they are not far off the pace, especially considering this is a team with so many new faces that they should continue to get a little better as the year goes on.  Their defense has been awful.  Noah seems to be over the hill.  He has something left in the tank but this will look like a very bad contract by the time the contract is done.  
​Derrick Rose is a mystery.  He actually seems to have his legs back.  His athleticism and explosiveness is there, yet his basketball IQ or some other limiting factor has translated into bad shooting and very low assist rate and mediocre defense.
 
Brandon Jennings can’t shoot but he is an excellent ball handler and passer.  He is exciting to watch and meshes well with Porzingis and Hermangomez.
 
Melo has been solid but not better than that and is clearly at the beginning of his decline as a player.  Lee is average at best.  Thomas has been a disappointment, but it could be attributable to an injury.  If he can’t hit the open 3 his value is materially diminished.  I am a big fan of Hermangomez.  I think he is smart and will continue to develop as he ages and his body fills out.  O Quinn has looked better due to his weight loss.  He is hitting his shots and is leading the league in blocks shots per minute of playing time.  He is also a surprisingly good passer.  Unfortunately he doesn’t understand team defense and is not overly athletic.
 
Far and away the most exciting part of the Knicks is watching the continued development of Kristaps Porzingis.  We had predicted a big improvement and it’s there as he has been averaging 20 points a game and you get the feeling he is just scratching the surface,.  Within 2 years he should be a top 10 player in the NBA.  I hope Melo passes the torch gracefully.


​-Ari Glass

​Coming off a few awful seasons, the Knicks look to get back into the playoffs.  They hired a new coach and brought in some big name players, but the biggest change may come from the continued improvement of young, second-year player Kristaps Porzingis.

He had a very good rookie year and then spent the summer getting stronger and working on his three-point shot. He is thought to guard on offense and his length is very disruptive in defense.  His year over year improvement will be what gets the Knicks into the playoffs.

Melo returns but is definitely on the decline.  He is thought of as a superstar but is no longer a top 10 player.

If Joakim Noah can stay healthy, he is likely a wash versus last years center Robin Lopez. He is a better passer, but not as good a post scorer.

The biggest improvement on the floor will be point guard where Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings are not what they were, but are remarkable improvements over the horrific point guard situation the Knicks have had for the past few years.

I have similar thoughts about Coach Hornacek.  He is not a top 10 Caoach but Derrick Fisher was in over his head and was forced to use a 1980s offense by Phil Jackson.  An uptempo offense while keeping some triangle principles will prove to be for the better.

Kyle O’Quinn lost some weight and may actually contribute a bit.  Courtney Lee will be solid at the two and I have high hopes for the ultimate development of young center Willy Hernangómez, who joins from Spain

The NBA has only two teams that can realistically win the championship in the Warriors and Cavs. The Knicks won't compete for that because it's not 2011 and Rose and Noah are no longer superstars but the improvement of Porzingis and the improving of the weakest areas to mediocrity will lead the Knicks to a 44 win season and a 7th seed in the Eastern Conference.

-Ari Glass

We are already 11 games in so it’s hard to call this a season preview but please excuse the tardiness.

Low expectations:

The only good thing about last season’s 17-win performance was setting of expectations so amazingly low.  It’s hard to find a publication that predicts playoffs or more than even 35 wins for the Knicks.

We are slightly more optimistic.

The Knicks made major changes to the team and kept some things the same.  We are excited about some but not as excited about others.

We will review these changes and opine on the prospects for the season.

After chasing big name free agents, the Knicks needed to settle for a few second and in some case third tier players.

Their big signing was Robin Lopez.  The irony of this signing is that he got nearly what Chandler was making and is a similar player.  Neither of them can shoot and they are both known for good team defense.  The reality is that it’s hard to believe that he could be the identical twin of Brook Lopez and yet lack any semblance of an offensive game or shooting ability.

He will be a decent piece but they will come to regret spending $14m on him.  He is simply not that good.  He is the very definition of average.  Some argue they needed to, and I’m ok with a center who is around mostly for defense and rebounding but he doesn’t really rebound and isn’t really such a prolific shot blocker either.

Kyle O’ Quinn – he is a hard body who rebounds well and can both shoot and even pass.  He has the misfortune of playing behind Porzingis which limits playing time, but he will fill the box score when in the game.  For some reason he seems to be in the dog house getting benched in favor of smaller lineups but I think that will prove to be cyclical.

Derrick Williams – it’s obvious to see both why he was a second overall pick and why he was considered a bust.  He shows tremendous potential.  He is extraordinarily athletic and can shoot reasonably well.  He was borderline dominant in pre-season and has had great runs in the regular season, but has proven to be inconsistent.  It’s hard to imagine we found something others couldn’t see but it does seem the potential is still there.

Kristaps Porzingis – admittedly not the guy I wanted.  I was looking for Mudiay once the lottery balls didn’t bounce right, but as they say you can’t teach 7 foot 3 and Porzingis comes with actual talent and hustle as well.  Given that he just turned 20, it’s amazing how many stars and coaches are already praising him.  He is years away from the all-star I believe he will become but he is unexpectedly already contributing materially to the current team.  It is the potential for his improvement that provides hope to Knicks fans for the future.

He was known for his shooting and for not being a good rebounder.  So far his shooting is not quite what it was supposed to be and his rebounding has been materially better.

Lance Thomas – Fisher loves him.  He did add muscle this off season and is very fundamentally sound but I still would rather see guys like O’Quinn and Williams play over him.  He is solid but unspectacular.

Langston Galloway – He is the player on whom my opinion most changed in the past year.  He spent the off-season adding muscle to his frame and working on his shot.  Both have significantly improved his game to where he is one of their better players.  He is light years better than Calderón on defense, and can now hit the open three-pointer.  He was actually leading the league for a short amount of time, though this is still clearly the law of small numbers.

Melo – I’d say Melo will be Melo but Melo aging may not be the Melo we have known. I was always more bullish on him than most but am unconvinced he is the player he was at his peak.   A real shame if he and Porzingis won’t have time to have their best days overlap as that is the only way this team will thrive in the next couple of years.

Afflalo – At this point incomplete.  He has recently returned from injury.  He seems to be aggressive defensively but to date I have not seen a high Basketball IQ on offense.  He seems to force shots that are not great.  I’m hopeful that as he becomes more comfortable with his teammates, that will change.

Jerian Grant – I’m in the minority here but I’m not a huge fan.  Yes, he has an NBA body and plays good defense, but it’s hard to play guard in this league with no outside shot and he has none.  Additionally, if you watch him closely, his ability to dribble left handed is not NBA level, and when other teams figure that out he will really struggle.  Perhaps he can work on these things in the off season but I actually expect his playing time will actually go down and not up over the course of the season, especially if Galloway can get minutes at the 1.

Calderón – his shot and offensive game is coming around after a slow start but he is so horrific defensively that it causes the whole defense to break down.  The good thing is that this year when his man beats him, between Porzingis and Lopez it’s no longer a guaranteed lay-up.  The Calderón trade/contract was the worst thing Jackson did to the team.

Vujačić – Does everything but nothing particularly well.  With Afflalo back and Galloway playing well, he will get many DNPs this year.

Serafin – I like his skills if not his judgement.  He can block shots and hit shots and can even make an occasional good pass.  I’m not sure why he is behind Amundsen on the depth chart.  He shouldn’t be.  He did come in 25 pounds over-weight.  If he ever dropped those pounds he could be a real contributor.

Projection – the Knicks will surprise many and win 39 games this year.  They will still likely finish just barely out of the playoffs but will contend for a spot down to the final couple of weeks. 

-Ari Glass

Similar to my Giants, the Knicks are a mediocre team.  They should be good for 40 wins this year. Presumably, they will improve just by the removal of Woodson.  He was a horrible coach who didn’t understand certain basics like playing offense /defense at the end of a quarter or instructing guys when it is appropriate to hold for one.  The Triangle is no panacea.  It will likely ultimately improve the team, but assume there will be a couple of month’s learning curve before the improvement translates.  Even with some tweaks it’s a similar team to last year’s 38 win team.  The hope for improvement comes from the following:

Felton had one of the worst years I’ve ever seen from a starting point guard. That is on both sides of the floor. Calderon should be a big improvement offensively and won’t be worse defensively.  Hardaway should progress as he enters his second year.  I still have big hopes for Shumpert as he is an elite defender and should have the tools to be a much better offensive player.  Smith is likely not well cut out to play the triangle and while he should be better than the first half of the year when he was injured, he won’t get back to his 2012 form or the form he showed in the last quarter of last year.  Melo will play more 3 this year hurting much of his edge.  The offense will be a large adjustment for him.  The argument people make for Melo in the Triangle is that it worked for MJ and Kobe so he should eventually figure out a way to make it work for him.

Amar’e should be healthier this year and contribute more.  He is still athletic, and will be very valuable if he is hitting his 15 foot elbow shots.  I’m not convinced he will ever learn the fundamentals of defense.  Speaking of not learning the fundaments of defense, Bargnani is the least fundamental defensive player I have ever seen.  His injury is a blessing.  I have to believe that the talk of making him into a valuable contributor coming out of Camp Jackson, has to do with trying to get someone to trade for him.  They can’t be that wrong.  Jason Smith is actually a very good addition who is perfect for this offense in that he can hit open 15 footers and this will be available for him.  Dalembert has good shot blocking skills and should not be a material down grade from Chandler.  The hope is that he is keeping a seat warm for Marc Gasol.  Prigioni still gives quality minutes despite his age limitations and Shane Larkin is never going to be a quality starter in the NBA.  At his size he needs to be a great shooter and he is not.

The Knicks record last year in games decided by 2 or less points was horrific.  The blame can be shared between Woodson and a Melo that was too tired from playing 40 minutes a game.  Both of those should be improved upon, allowing a slightly higher win total. Best case they get the 8 spot and sneak into the playoffs.  The smarter play would be to trade away what they can before the trade deadline and focus on 2015-16 season when the cap space is freed up.

The Knicks tried to get something done at the trade deadline and were unsuccessful.  Inside sources tell me they were close on a 6 player deal that fell apart last minute.  It is possible that the Shumpert injury killed some opportunities they have.  It’s always possible that it turns into a blessing in disguise if he flourishes, but that looks less and less likely.  More importantly, the 2 guard is just very crowded.

The Knicks cannot be a competitive team with a 2014 version of Ray Felton playing. His offensive game is off a little, but his defense is now so uncompetitive that the other team is a +10 before they walk onto the floor. It’s too hard to make up.  Since the current Knicks team can’t compete, they should give Toure Murray a shot.  What do they have to lose?

Felton himself has started to point fingers at Woodson. He is not completely incorrect.  Opposing teams understand all you need to do is run a high pick and roll and two passes later it will result in an open corner three pointer. Three point defense is not like free throw defense.  There really is a factor determined by defense being played.  It’s sad to say that if I was Melo, I would leave the Knicks. Unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat, I don’t see how they are better next year.  They have no first round draft pick and only Hardaway is a truly ascending player (possibly Tyler as well).

In life, I’ve been accused of excess pessimism.  In sports fandom, I’ve been accused of unrealistic optimism.  It’s really hard.  I don’t see a playoff possibility this year and the only way they get better next year is Woodson being replaced, but what good coach wants this job?

Since the start of 2014, the Knicks have looked like a respectable team.  They have now won 5 of 6 including signature wins over both the Spurs and the Heat.  During the Heat game, the Garden rocked like it hadn’t in a long time.  And this was without a sick Chandler, a benched JR Smith, and injured Prigioni.  How can a team look so bad for part of the year, then suddenly learn how to play?  I have a few theories.  One is that it’s just an aberration.  They were not as bad as their record and not as good as they are currently playing. 

More likely are some other reasons.  Shumpert seems to be emerging from a season long slump, resembling the player he was last year.  More importantly, injuries have opened the door for Toure Murry to get some playing time.  He is not bad at all, showing the pre-season was no fluke.  He is solid on the offensive side but very good on the defensive side.  With most Knicks point guards, and especially Udrih, the Knicks get broken down off the dribble forcing rotations that ultimately lead to an open man scoring for the opponent.  A healthier Amar’e and Kenyon Martin have also helped.  Also, Melo seems to trust his teammates more and hog the ball less.  This is creating ball movement.  Lastly, they seemed to have somewhat figured out how Woodson wants them to rotate on defense.  The one exception to this is Bargnani. 

I have been following him closely during games and here is my conclusion.  He is a solid offensive player. He has better and less good shooting nights but seems to understand the offense and be aware of his limitations and plays within his skill set.  On defense he is actually not a bad one on one defender.  He is long and can stick with most offensive players. The issue with him (other than his horrific rebounding for a 7 footer) is that nobody ever taught him how to play a pick and roll.  He doesn’t understand either when he should fight through a pick, nor when his teammate should fight through a pick, when the pick is being set by the guy guarding Bargnani.

As a result they always switch, leaving mismatches on the floor.  That is what gets them killed.  Fortunately, one of the recent improvements on the defensive side is the Knicks better understanding how to defend as a team after the switch takes place and a mismatch is created. 

The best part of the Knicks season this year is that they are fortunate to play in the horrific Eastern conference, meaning they are only a few games away from a 4 seed, and currently only half a game from the 8 hole behind the woefully inept Pistons. 

If Woodson figures out how to properly reintegrate Chandler, and make sure Toure Murry stays in the rotation even after everyone else returns, the Knicks could make it to the second round of the playoffs.  None of this is a given.

Regarding JR – If he was in the last year of his contract you bench him and don’t deal with him for a while.  But they need to figure out a way to get his head on straight.  He is with them for the next 3 years and probably untradeable.  Good for Woodson showing a spine and finally disciplining the guy.  It is likely he will need to do it again and next time even more harshly.  The reality is that the drop-off to either Shumpert or Hardaway is negligible, so it really is a no brainer.  He is so physically talented. If he can ever get his head on straight, he could be a real asset.  Until then, you will never be able to count on him.